Alan Greenspan Discusses The Fed's Inability To See Bubbles, Is Confident There Is A "Bubble Waiting To Burst In China" | zero hedge

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/alan-greenspan-discusses-feds-inability-see-bubbles-confident-there-bubble-waiting-burst-chi

Alan Greenspan Discusses The Fed's Inability To See Bubbles, Is Confident There Is A
"Bubble Waiting To Burst In China" | zero hedge

Kommentar

Hunt: On Fed President Janet Yellen’s remarks that higher-short-term interest rates probably would have restrained the demand for housing by raising home mortgage rates: 

Greenspan: “I think [that is wrong]. We tried to do that in 2004. We ran into a conundrum. For decades, every time the Fed raised its short-term rates, the 10-year note, which is really the proxy for mortgage rates, the yield went up with it. This time, it did not. And the reason it did not, is you cannot have the 10-year note determined both by arbitraged global finance and individual central banks. As a consequence of that…starting in the period where the sensitivity of the early stages of the bubble were building up, it was very clear that what was determining the rise in prices was movements in long-term mortgage rates going down, not the federal funds rate.  And indeed, when the federal funds rate was purposely put down in 2003, long-term rates did not come down. As far as I can say, the general notion is just not supporting. The general notion that the Fed was the propagator of the bubble by monetary policy, does not hold up to the evidence.”

Okaaaaay. Kurz gesagt: weil die Fed den Langfrist-Markt nicht im Griff hatte, war sie nicht daran schuld. Coole Auslegung.

Wie wäre ist mit folgender Bewertung?

Die Fed war ganz verblüfft, dass ihr Regulierungsversuch keinen Effekt hatte. Und hat dann den Kopf in den Sand gesteckt und Däumchen gedreht.

Was sie hätte tun müssen:

Das Problem herausfinden und eliminieren. Dann wäre sie sofort auf das globale Ungleichgewicht zwischen USA und China gestossen. Aber das scheint zwei Millimeter neben dem gesetzlich vorgegebenen Aufgabengebiet der Fed zu liegen.

Bravo. Herzlichen Glückwunsch zu dieser Glanzleistung.

Hunt: Response to critics who say that a proposed systemic risk regulator (which Greenspan does not want) could hardly have done a worse job than the current system did:

Greenspan: “They wouldn’t. But the problem is, that is not the answer to this issue. It is very evident to me that the underlying crisis was caused by what is clearly a once-in-a- century event. We have had almost no instances of short-term credit being withdrawn on a global basis the way it happened right after the Lehman bankruptcy. All of the individual evidence here is that this is a very rare occasion.”

Aha. Ein Jahrhundertereignis. Wenn man die konkreten Umstände in Betracht zieht, dann mag das stimmen. Man kann sich natürlich immer damit herausreden, dass alles nicht exakt so ist, wie es in den Geschichtsbüchern stand, und man dann halt per se überfordert ist mit der Situation, da man keine vorbereiteten Lösungen aus Standard-Lehrbüchern zur Hand hat.

Begrenze ich die Ursache der Krise allerdings auf Fahrlässigkeit auf institutioneller Ebene, dann sieht das schon gaaaanz anders aus.